关键词: 高龄老人, 自评健康期望寿命, 自理健康期望寿命, 健康期望寿命, ROC曲线

Abstract: Objective To explore the attenuation inflection point of elderly's estimated healthy life expectancy, analysis associated factors, and to provide reference for the community to provide accurate old-age services. Methods By convenience sampling method, elderly people from nine communities of Fujian Province were investigated. The life expectancy of self-care health and self-rated healthy life expectancy were used for screening. The ROC curve of age prediction estimated healthy life expectancy attenuation was plotted, and logistic analysis was used to explore associated factors. Results The best cut-off value for age prediction of life expectancy of self-care health attenuation was 85.5 years old, and the area under the ROC curve line AUC was 0.873, the most approximate index was 1.613, the diagnostic sensitivity was 66.50%, and the specificity was 94.80%; The best cut-off value of age prediction of self-rated healthy life expectancy attenuation was 85.5 years old, and the area under the ROC curve line AUC was 0.799, the most approximate index was 1.520, the diagnostic sensitivity was 57.30%, and the specificity was 94.70%; And age, illiterate, chronic disease were hazard factors, good economic conditions, surviving spouse were protective factors for estimated healthy life expectancy; Conclusion The estimated healthy life expectancy attenuation inflection point of the elderly is about 85.5 years old. The age, illiterate, chronic disease were hazard factors, good economic conditions, surviving spouse were protective factors.

Key words: elderly, self-rated healthy life expectancy, life expectancy of self-care health, healthy life expectancy, attenuation inflection point, ROC curve